Sensex prediction: August and September 2009

After an unintended performance and scare rain falls you ofcourse can’t expect a blockbuster from markets. But the story lies elsewhere. With some of the economies around the world recovering a wee little bit, expect a slight jump in FII investment. After the reports that the tax heaven Cayman islands based hedge funds may get an easier entry to trade in India, things may just slightly pull up from here. Expect a pull back to 15,500 levels in the initial period how ever the end result will be around a sub 15k levels as it is today. The ideal level to trade at would be 14,600 if the present market continues its downward rally. Place some risks in auto sector, pharma and infrastructre. There may pay off by a small profit if exits are possible at 15k levels.

Markets Tank: FM the culprit

I know there are many people who would be cursing our beloved Finance Minister. Market expectation were largely ignored, some of them likeĀ major reforms, changes in corporate tax, fuel prices, removal of surcharge, but given that this budget is more of a populist budget it was pretty much obvious that Markets tanked.

And how! The biggest ever dive on a Budget day. The positives were extension of STPI tax holidays by one year which is going to help the IT sector, abolishing FBT and transaction tax on trading in Commodities.

For those who provide services within infrastructure will get a chance to bid for more Government projects, expenditure of which will be in the range of 9% of the total GDP.

I guess this is more or less an ideal budget that is not focused only on the corporate sector. Our corporates should not only think about how the budget is affecting the India Inc.

The whole media is hoop-halla about the negative aspect of budget as if they have stopped getting negative news elsewhere. Media should also have had shown the positives.

Hope I would be able to make this much more simpler in another post, after analysing what went good for a Common Man.

The Markets will remain positive for June 2009: A little worry though

It was two horrific news with a good one. What a combination you may ask?

The first and obvious story that captured the headlines were the racism attacks on Indians in Australia. That followed with the news that Oil prices will be de-regulated which means that things could go costlier in future.

However, it may just be good that it will happen. The reforms was what was expected of Congress and they are bang on it! It also may turn out to be good for the economy overall. Because that inflation can grow up from here and this will help the country to be back on the fast track out of recession in general.

The Good news from a cell phone user point of view was that Minister A. Raja said that he wished the Telephonic rates to come down to 10 paise for local calls and 25 paise for STD calls. What the government has dones is done a small harm with even smaller good.

This can spell doom for mobile telephonic companies profit margins, but then they will have to resort to VAS for earnings. This is a bit tricky one which may not necessarily boost healthy competition. Instead, I forsee mobile companies getting too agressive with VAS and customer will be bombared with calls and SMSes ignoring privacy and Do Not Disturb facility.

These news’ will have its effect on the Sensex and how! I stand by my prediction on Sensex crossing 16K by June end which I had posted earlier on my Blog. Trade safe, dont be aggressive in your investment decisions.

Is it time to buy then? Sensex Crosses 14k

While it was just open and close thing, all that ment was Sensex jumping 2000 points in a matter of 30 minutes. It hit the upper circut and it was gone. To much happiness of all investors. While reports came that US retail sales fell for a second month in April.

Its an amazing, isnt it this Sensex thing. Keeps going in a zig zag manner. Now for tomorrow, its gonna be either the lower or the upper circut that is going to be breached. Hold your horses.

If positive, sensex will reach on 15,500 and settle at 15,100 at the end of the day.

I read on ET that Sensex may even reach to abnormal levels of 29,000 by the end of June. Well, they might have facts and reasons to believeĀ  which is making me wonder how long will the prediction stand logical.

President of India, Pratibha Patil has invited Manmohan Singh tomorrow to form a government. Who all will be in cabinet is anybody’s guess.

But one thing is certain, Sensex will beat my predictions but I would like to say that assuming anything that is more than 17,o00 is not a good idea give the global slump. There are lessons to be learnt from the fall and every one should be cautious.

Trade safely with 16,500 in your minds for June 2009. That would be my prediction.

Now the Bulls will roar – Sensex Outlook after elections

Now that every one knows what happened yesterday all of you people will be guessing what will happen to Sensex, the benchmark index. If you do not know; the Great Indian Elections that were held in four phases last month where the United Progressive Alliance, led by Congress won with majority defeating BJP and others who posed a threat on them.

Given that Dalal street has a soft corner for Congress and vice – versa, the Sensex will gain more. From my earlier prediction, I said that Sensex will gain up to 15,000 levels by the end of the June. However looking at the volatility in the market, I will revise it to a more modest 13,800 levels. But I would also like to maintain that Sensex may cross the 14,200 mark and may even go up to 15,000 levels.